Retrospective rollercoaster: Brazil’s 30% tax is back off the table

Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies has withdrawn Provisional Measure 1,303/2025, which would have allowed the Government to impose retroactive taxes on betting operators that operated before market regulation. 

The proposal, tied to a broader fiscal reform package, failed to gain sufficient congressional support and expired.

The bill, originally conceived as an alternative to increasing the national Financial Operations Tax, was backed by Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and it was expected to help the Government meet its 2026 fiscal targets by generating up to BR20.9bn ($3.9bn) in revenue and cutting BR10.7bn in spending. 

A last-minute amendment introduced a voluntary scheme requiring companies to pay 15% in taxes and 15% in fines on operations between 2014 and 2024, a total effective charge of 30%.

For betting operators, the immediate impact is limited: the 18% GGR tax applies only to the eight days the measure was in force this month, reverting to the original 12% rate thereafter.

Despite approval in a joint committee by a narrow 13-12 margin, the Chamber rejected the measure, with 251 votes for its withdrawal and 193 against. 

Without the necessary backing, PM 1,303 will not proceed to the Senate and will lose validity. The Ministry of Finance now faces an estimated shortfall of BR42.3bn through 2026.

Senator Renan Calheiros, who chaired the joint committee reviewing the proposal, criticized the outcome, warning it could “affect public finances” and undermine fiscal balance. 

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Meanwhile, opposition leader Rogério Marinho praised the decision as a victory against “excessive taxation,” arguing the Government should focus on controlling public spending rather than creating new taxes.

Economy officials, however, maintain that recovering unpaid betting taxes remains a priority. 

Industry analysts believe the Government will revisit retroactive taxation in future proposals, though the timing remains uncertain.

Carlos Mendez

Writer

Odds tell a story long before the result does. When bettors learn to read that story properly, betting becomes a matter of discipline and value rather than emotion or guesswork.

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