WSOP Bears Begin Influencing Kalshi Market Speculating on Main Event Entries

Credit: Drew Amato

With the World Series of Poker mere days away in Las Vegas, speculation on the field size of the $10,000 main event has begun ramping up on Kalshi, but sentiment seems bearish.

The over/under established by Kalshi is 10,000 entries, but the odds of the event clearing that bar have slowly ticked down in recent weeks. The market opened at close to a coin flip in early May but has dropped to about 35%.

Most of that decline has come recently. Through May 3, the average price for Yes on Kalshi remained at about 46 cents. However, trading has intensified since May 7, and the decline in Yes share prices accelerated at that point.

The recent history of the WSOP has seen an ongoing dance with the number 10,000. Four summer events have run since the COVID-19 pandemic. The last three have all been within a few hundred entries on either side of that number.

• 2022: 8,663
• 2023: 10,043
• 2024: 10,112
• 2025: 9,735

The 2024 turnout set an all-time record. However, after a slight downturn in 2025, the environment looks potentially even frostier in 2026. Traders may be responding to that, or they may simply be buying up early positions that they hope to sell later for a profit.

Opening of Registration Prompted Increased Trading

WSOP allows players to register for all of its events via the WSOP+ app. May 8 was the first full day with registration open, and that seemed to signal the unofficial start of increased trading on whether the WSOP main event would reach 10,000 entries. Even with a very slow first day, about $8,000 has been traded since that date.

That represents about a quarter of the $34,000 total volume in the market, which has been open since late January.

The uptick in trading corresponds with the opening of early registration through the WSOP+ app. Although some registrations have begun trickling in, most players will be waiting until they’re in Las Vegas to commit.

Only three people have pre-registered for the WSOP main event at this early juncture. It’s hard to infer much from that, since the tournament doesn’t start until July 2 and there’s little incentive for a player to lock in $10,000 ahead of time.

If Kalshi speculators were looking at the app for clues, those near-nonexistent early registration numbers might seem to bode poorly. On the other hand, the opening of registration may just have nudged them to get a bet in before the data starts to point in one direction or the other.

Poker Economy, Environmental Factors Could Mean Low Turnout

While simply looking at the recent turnouts frames 10,000 entries as perfectly reasonable, a year-over-year increase would actually count as a major win for the WSOP, given the current realities of the poker economy.

Most poker tournaments have seen their turnouts dip in 2026. Here’s a selection of popular events with little to no structural/scheduling changes year over year. Every single one dropped entries:

Some events lost around 20% or more of their 2025 entries. WPT Rolling Thunder was close to a 25% drop. That counts as a fairly ominous sign.

Gambling tax changes implemented by the Trump administration in 2025 also take effect this year. They limit gamblers’ ability to write off losses with a cap of 90%, so racking up expenses is now more punitive. Some players may be paring down their poker budgets in response. For many players, a $10,000 buy-in is the biggest expense they will incur all year.

A reversal could still happen, but as of now, players have to plan for an increased tax burden.

Trump administration foreign policies have also turned off some international travelers, especially those from Canada. While Las Vegas is doing its best to woo travelers amid the downturn, a lighter foreign contingent of players could deliver a sizable hit to the WSOP main event.

Expect Early Series Field Sizes to Cause More Movement

With all of that said, plenty of key dates still lie ahead, and developments could easily swing the Kalshi market back the other way.

For all of the hits taken by other live poker operators, the WSOP still occupies a special place in many poker players’ hearts. The chance to chase a bracelet, the annual “summer camp” feel to their journeys to the desert, and the opportunity to turn modest buy-ins into massive prizes provide a unique allure. Even if the rest of the poker economy is feeling a pinch, the WSOP might be immune.

Perhaps players have even dialed back their action elsewhere to make sure they can attend and play as usual.

Year-over-year attendance at the early marquee events may provide a clearer signal than anything thus far. Speculators searching for such signals should pay attention to the following key dates.

Mo Nuwwarah

Poker & iGaming Expert

Mo Nuwwarah is a gambling industry writer with extensive experience covering poker and sports betting, while also exploring the emerging prediction market verticals. He has more than a decade of experience in the industry after graduating from journalism school in 2011.

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