Analysis: Where next for Brazil after CPI report is rejected?

For months, Brazil’s Parliamentary Inquiry into online betting, or the CPI das Bets as we call it in sunny Brazil, was originally created to investigate possible links between gambling platforms and criminal activity. 

It promised to expose the underbelly of a booming industry. In reality, the CPI delivered drama, influencer selfies mid-hearing, video edits on X and in a last-minute plot twist… its report was rejected.

The Fortunate Tiger?

Among other regulations, Senator Soraya Thronicke’s report proposed banning “Fortune Tiger”-style games. It also listed 16 proposed indictments, from huge influencers like Virginia Fonseca and Deolane Bezerra to business owners and alleged money launderers.

But in the end, the CPI voted it down: four senators opposed it while only three supported it, Thronicke herself included. According to those who opposed, the document lacked technical depth and failed to build consensus – awkward, considering Senator Thronicke had repeatedly requested extensions to complete it.

Still… It feels like banning Fortune Tiger would be a symbolic fix. Cosmetic, even. If it had happened, the root cause would not be addressed. Eventually, another animal-themed dopamine provider would take its place.

Influencers, optics and the credibility gap

The power imbalance during the inquiry was almost comical. Watching a Senator take a selfie with an influencer mid-hearing – especially one under investigation for allegedly profiting from 30% of her followers’ betting losses – felt like watching Batman ask the Joker for an autograph.

Sure, it gets clicks. But it also raises uncomfortable questions about who’s actually running the show.

Fonseca took selfies with senators mid-hearing, with the speaker warning that it should not “turn into a circus”

Still Thronicke, who had her share of being theatrical, saw through all that and pushed for indictments anyway. But with the cameras off and votes counted, she found herself fighting a losing battle.

#InstaBets

While the CPI stole the spotlight, Brazil’s Senate was also busy doing some other housekeeping: restructuring the regulation on betting ads. The bill, already greenlit by the Chamber of Deputies, bans promotions aimed at minors and ads that suggest your BR10 ($1.81) bet will definitely buy you a yacht overnight.

The goal? Protect consumers without scaring off operators. It’s not a full-on ad-apocalypse, but influencers might have to swap the “easy millions” tone for one that says “gamble responsibly” in their next #ad.

A rule book still being written

In the end, The CPI was never meant to demonise gambling itself. Operators also face real challenges – particularly Brazil’s slow and shifting regulatory rollout.

Many of the biggest companies operating in the country are still waiting on licensing processes and transparency around advertising rules. If anything, the CPI’s collapse reflects a larger problem: Brazil is still writing the rules while the game is already being played.

Senator Soraya Thronicke was tough on influencers, but ultimately saw her recommendations rejected

Is there more to come as the dust (and Tigrinhos) settle?

With Thronicke’s report discarded and new proposals stalled, the focus now shifts to the Ministry of Finance, which has suggested raising betting tax rates from 12% to 18%, and perhaps higher still.

Regulating influencer ads and understanding operators to come up with better solutions is a good call – a well-regulated market is far better for everyone than one that’s forbidden or treated like a dirty secret. When people see gambling framed responsibly, they can actually understand what it means to engage with it… responsibly.

Maybe this entire saga pushes the Brazilian industry towards a version of itself that looks a little less Wolf of Wall Street, and a little more the ending of Lord of the Rings – where all the battles have been fought but an orderly peace prevails.

And honestly? That might be the plot twist no one saw coming but the one we all needed. We’re all anxious to see what happens next.

Carlos Mendez

Writer

Odds tell a story long before the result does. When bettors learn to read that story properly, betting becomes a matter of discipline and value rather than emotion or guesswork.

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