DK Replay is a High-Vig Casino Game Disguised as Sports Betting
Credit: Mathias Reding/Pexels
Last month, DraftKings quietly rolled out a historical horse racing-like product based on real batter vs. pitcher interactions, calling it DK Replay in Oregon. It allows customers there to bet on these interactions, with markets available at any time of day. The collective response has been anything but quiet.
Industry observers have skewered DK and the regulator, calling them out for pushing a thinly veiled, predatory casino game under the guise of sports betting. The regulator itself defended the product, saying it “does not rely on a random number generator.”
Gaming America decided to investigate the product. We took a $10 bankroll and experimented with DK Replay to see whether it more closely resembled sports betting or a casino game.
How DK Replay Works
Loading up DK Replay produces a rather bland game screen. Users of the MLB App will recognize the setup. A non-descript baseball field is in the background, while an anonymous animated batter stands at the plate. Below this, three betting options appear:
- In play
- Ball/hit by pitch
- Strike/foul
Each one has American-style odds next to it.
A timer with about 15 seconds to start counts down at the top of the screen. The player selects one of the options, along with a betting stake at the bottom. At the end of the countdown, the graphic of a pitch heads toward the batter, and one of the outcomes is highlighted, paying out that outcome.
DK Replay conceals the names of the batter and pitcher. It labels their anonymous avatars with gold, silver, or bronze, ostensibly to give bettors an idea of each player’s skill level.
If the pitch ends the at-bat, then a graphic pops up revealing the names of the players and the date of the game. Only the first five pitches of the at-bat are eligible for bets.
DK Replay Isn’t Baseball, and It Isn’t Sports Betting
Here is a quote from the Oregon regulator in the Sportico story linked above:
“Players are wagering on baseball, and they are watching baseball to determine the outcome of a win.”
…Are they, though?
I’ve watched a lot of baseball in my time, and that isn’t baseball. It’s a graphical representation of baseball, but it feels nothing like watching actual baseball. That seems incredibly obvious, but I still feel like I have to say it, given that a regulator delivered that line on the record.
If they were watching baseball, they would know which players and teams were performing. They would understand that the interplay between the batter and the pitcher depends on countless factors, all missing from DK Replay.
To use a simple example, the handedness of each player matters a great deal, yet DK Replay portrays every batter as a right-hander, even when the underlying data involves a lefty. The pitcher doesn’t appear at all. There is similarly no indication of the, weather, ballpark, defense, game situation, etc.
The only hints that the bettor has are the ball-strike count and the player labels. For example, in one 3-0 count that we observed, the odds on an “in play” result up to +7400. That’s because batters typically will not swing at any pitch in that situation, hoping to draw a walk.
As for the player labels, they’re of questionable utility. For instance, left-handed reliever Brooks Raley was revealed to be under the bronze label. While he isn’t the most recognizable name in MLB, Raley has a 2.50 ERA over the past five seasons. That ranks 16th out of 255 relievers who have thrown at least 100 innings in that time.
Of course, if players knew that, someone might find an edge, and DK has taken great pains to ensure DK Replay provides nothing of the sort.
DK Replay More Closely Resembles a Casino Game
Instead, DK Replay much more closely resembles a casino game. From form to function, it has more in common with iGaming than sports betting.
For instance, let’s take a look at the house edge. In a sample of 20 bets reviewed by Gaming America, the vigorish averaged 10.15%. That’s not unheard of for a sportsbook, but it’s quite high. In fact, it’s more than double the vig on a typical -110/-110 two-sided market (4.76%).
That sort of house edge hews more closely to a slot machine, although it’s higher even than slots on the Las Vegas Strip, which are some of the most miserly you’ll find in a casino. Those pay out around 92% return-to-player (RTP).
The speed of the action mimics that of a slot machine as well. In the sample we reviewed, the bettor fired a bet approximately every nine seconds. That’s in the same ballpark as a typical slot, although it could be slower or faster depending on the machine and the player.
Where DK Replay differs greatly from a slot is in the distribution of the payouts. Aside from the +7400 we observed in the 3-0 count, the potential isn’t really there for a big payout. Even with that one included, the “in play” payouts averaged approximately +1000.
Really, DK Replay bears more resemblance to blackjack or Pai Gow. It offers similar payouts around even money most of the time, while giving the player an element of control that slot machines lack.
Innovation is Good, Mislabeling Things Isn’t
If anyone thinks this is betting on baseball, I have a bridge to sell you, as the saying goes.
This is iGaming dressed up as something else. Oregon has not legalized online casino, nor has it made a serious effort to do so. Yet, DraftKings has rolled out a product that functions very much like an online casino, accessible from right within its sportsbook app.
To DK and the Oregon regulators who cleared this, I submit a very basic question: Do we not have enough to bet on right now?
There are five baseball games on in the middle of the day today. Tomorrow, there are two Final Four games. I can bet on the No. 1 pick in the WNBA draft. If I tire of American sports, I can live bet Portuguese soccer right now (Sporting Lisbon is -370 against CD Santa Clara with 30 minutes remaining, if you’re wondering). If I care to wake up at 5 a.m., I can sweat my Mumbai Indians vs. Delhi Capitals bets (Mumbai is -175, send tips if you have them).
DraftKings has put a sports betting dress on a casino game. And the regulator, amazingly enough, has chosen to stick its head in the sand. I simply don’t see what purpose DK Replay serves other than siphoning even more money from addicts who somehow can’t wait until the next game starts to give DK more action. This sort of greed is exactly why the sports betting industry, and gambling at large, has been experiencing such backlash recently.
As long as stakeholders keep making silly, shortsighted moves like this, that backlash will be well-deserved.
Reporting by Sam Cosby contributed to this piece.
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