Is Brazilian gambling using an unworkable model?

Approved in the Senate and now under discussion in the Chamber of Deputies, Bill PL 2.985/2023 has triggered a red alert across Brazil’s sports betting ecosystem. In the name of protecting vulnerable groups, the country risks undermining not only its tax revenue and sports funding, but also the very existence of a regulated and functional market.

The substitute text, introduced by Senator Carlos Portinho, proposes a series of restrictions that, in practice, suffocate any legitimate communication between betting operators and the public. Advertising would only be permitted between 7:30pm local time and midnight on television and digital platforms, with even narrower time slots on radio. During live sporting events, ads can only appear 15 minutes before or after the broadcast – and even then, without odds, dynamic content or context-relevant information.

But the problem goes far beyond timing. The bill also bans the use of influencers, active athletes, celebrities, artists and public figures. It prohibits the use of mascots, animations or any colorful visual that might appeal to young audiences. Stadium advertising, print media, team sponsorships and branded materials would be virtually banned – with very few exceptions for contracts already in effect.

“The message is clear: even lawful, regulated communication is being treated as morally toxic”

And yet, we don’t need to speculate about the consequences – we’ve seen them before.

In 2020, Spain implemented Royal Decree 958, which mirrored many of the restrictions now proposed in Brazil. The outcome? Immediate collapse in user acquisition: 326,000 fewer new accounts. Betting volume dropped by €232m ($265m). The illegal market expanded dramatically, reaching up to 30% market share. Tax revenue losses exceeded €500m annually. It got so bad that, in 2024, Spain’s Supreme Court struck down the harshest provisions, including the ban on celebrities and restrictions on digital advertising. The model had become unworkable.

Italy’s experience was even more extreme. In 2018, the country passed the Decreto Dignità, banning all forms of gambling advertising. The regulated market lost visibility, licensed operators were buried and the illegal market surged. Now, Italy is trying to backtrack – discussing ways to reintroduce balanced advertising rules.

Back in Brazil, we are heading in the same misguided direction. The current draft of PL 2.985/2023 does not just limit communication – it renders the legal market commercially unviable. For companies that rely on digital acquisition, this is a death sentence. For football clubs, the damage could surpass BR1.6bn ($0.28bn) per year, affecting youth programs, infrastructure and basic operations. For content creators, broadcasters and platforms that rely on advertising from this sector, it signals a wave of financial contraction.

Let me be clear: I am not against regulation. Regulation is essential. No serious market survives without clear rules and protective mechanisms. But over-regulation disguised as moral panic often leads to the opposite of what it intends. It pushes consumers toward unregulated alternatives, encourages informality and erodes the responsible gambling safeguards that only legal operators can provide.

To regulate is not to suffocate. To restrict is not to criminalize. We can – and must – protect the vulnerable without demonizing an entire industry. Brazil still has time to correct the course. But doing so will require more listening, more balance and less fear-driven politics.

Carlos Mendez

Writer

Odds tell a story long before the result does. When bettors learn to read that story properly, betting becomes a matter of discipline and value rather than emotion or guesswork.

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