Prediction Market Action on Kentucky Primary Surpassed NHL Betting in Key Moment for Kalshi
Thomas Massie (Credit: Gage Skidmore/Flickr)
This election year is producing some races with enough betting interest to help prediction markets make good on their promise of being more than just sportsbooks by another name.
Political and economic hedging form an important part of the exchanges’ rationale for existing. Critics of the fledgling industry frequently point to the extent to which sports trading dwarfs those markets. For one day, at least, that wasn’t true.
Kalshi betting volume on Thomas Massie vs. Ed Gallrein, a high-profile Republican primary in Kentucky, far surpassed that on any game of the NHL playoffs so far, and indeed the total NHL trading on any day this week.
The Massie vs. Gallrein race has attracted a lot of media—and betting—attention thanks to Massie’s high-profile falling-out with President Donald Trump over Massie’s calls to release the full Epstein Files. The files have been an ongoing scandal for Trump, who responded by backing Gallrein as the challenger. Gallrein succeeded in his challenge, ousting the eight-term Congressman and winning the House of Representatives seat for Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District with 54.9% of the vote.
Kentucky District 4 Trading by the Numbers
Trading on Massie vs. Gallrein peaked on Election Day, May 19. According to Gaming America’s data, Kalshi recorded $18,119,992 in volume that day. That surpassed the volume generated by all NHL games on any day since May 3, when $24,122,110 was wagered.
Although some days earlier in the playoffs exceeded $24 million in trading, those were days with multiple games, and few individual games have exceeded $10 million. So for a day, at least, politics was king compared with NHL bets.
Admittedly, the NHL ranks a distant fourth at best in the U.S.A.’s public sports consciousness. Still, the fact that a high-profile political race, one for a mere primary, could outperform NHL playoff markets counts as a positive sign for Kalshi.
Vigorous Election Trading is Important to Kalshi’s Image
Kalshi and the prediction market industry in general have consistently pushed back against critics characterizing them as sportsbooks. They cite the value of prediction markets as a sort of public truth barometer and the ability of users to trade against counterparties that aren’t “the house.”
Unfortunately, it’s tough to credibly stand on the “we aren’t sportsbooks” ground when upwards of 85% of Kalshi volume is on sports.
Kalshi needs trading volume on high-profile issues in the public discourse, such as Massie vs. Gallrein. These markets provide proof of concept that the vertical attracts users who aren’t merely interested in betting whether Victor Wembanyama will score 25 points against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday night.
The trick will be providing markets that generate interest without delving into objectionable subject matter or serving as little more than vehicles for insider trading.
Bettors Move on To L.A. Mayoral Race
With the race dubbed “the most expensive primary in history” now in the rearview, Kalshi bettors have already moved on to another high-profile political battleground. Gaming America has already covered the L.A. mayoral race and its corresponding Kalshi markets.
The day after the Kentucky primary, on May 20, betting on the L.A. mayoral race spiked on Kalshi. Betting volume there, which had averaged about $557,000 over the prior week, jumped by an order of magnitude to $5,311,358.
Again, that number was comparable to NHL playoff betting on the same day, which saw $7,740,903 wagered. In theory, betting interest for the NHL should have been high that day, since the Las Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche opened the Western Conference Finals.
The primary for the L.A. mayoral race is scheduled for June 2. That may provide another relevant data point in political betting interest compared with that of finals games for the NHL and NBA.
Image credit: Gage Skidmore/Flickr (license)
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