Full House Price Target Cut to $1.50 as Waukegan Financing Decides Its Future
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Macquarie has kept Full House Resorts at Neutral and cut its price target to $1.50 from $2, saying the stock’s fate rests on financing the permanent American Place casino in Waukegan, Illinois, and on turning around its Chamonix property in Colorado.
Shares have fallen more than 70% in a year, closing at $0.72 on Nov. 5, according to a note from senior gaming analyst Chad Beynon.
Full House Resorts is a regional casino operator with properties in Illinois, Colorado, Indiana, Mississippi and Nevada, including American Place in Waukegan and Chamonix in Cripple Creek. It also has a contracted sports wagering business.
Full House Lines Up Bank Facility and $315 Million Commitment
On its third-quarter call, management said it has a new $100 million bank facility, a $315 million commitment and continuing talks with existing bondholders to fund the roughly $400 million permanent casino.
Full House’s third-quarter earnings release lists $450 million of senior secured notes due 2028 and says the permanent casino should open in about two years.
Beynon called the commentary “constructive, but still requires trust” and said a completed deal would be “a major catalyst.”
American Place, the temporary casino that hit an all-time high a year ago, delivered another record quarter. Management says the permanent casino can generate more than $100 million of annual EBITDAR, in a state where casino revenue has been running above $180 million a month.
Chamonix Cost Cuts Target $10 Million to $20 Million of EBITDA
Management aims to lift Chamonix, in Cripple Creek, from break-even to $10 million to $20 million of EBITDA without higher revenue.
It has found about $8 million of cost savings and targets more than $10 million of total improvement, by changing hours at some non-gaming amenities, shifting marketing spend to digital channels and bringing housekeeping and laundry in-house.
Macquarie expects the savings to show from the first quarter of 2027. Colorado peer Monarch Casino reported record third-quarter revenue.
Q3 Miss Leads Macquarie to Lower Its Forecasts
Adjusted EBITDA fell 2% to $14.6 million, 10% below consensus, partly because the prior-year quarter included a gaming tax benefit. Revenue rose 4.9% to $81.8 million.
The GAAP net loss widened to $8.6 million, extending a run of losses that included a $10.4 million net loss in Q2 2025.
Macquarie cut its 2026 EBITDA forecast to $53 million from $56 million, well below the $90 million it projected in 2024.
Other brokers also cut: Citizens JMP lowered its Full House target to $2 from $3 but kept Market Outperform.
Macquarie’s $1.50 target still implies 108% upside, but the bank wants the Waukegan financing signed and the Chamonix savings showing in results before it turns positive.
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