A new survey suggests 31% of Americans believe prediction markets will reshape culture
A new survey by Coefficient Capital suggests that 31% of Americans believe that prediction markets will shape culture in 2026. While traditional sports betting has long held a grip on American culture, the rise of event contracts is rapidly closing the gap, especially with Gen Z and Millenials.
The survey offered some interesting insights, particularly when it came to brand awareness. Gen Z and Millennials were four times more likely to know about Polymarket than respondents Gen X and older.
Prediction Markets Have Become A Cultural Phenomenon
Perhaps the most telling part of the survey is how Americans view the future utility of prediction markets.
When asked if gambling on sports or prediction markets will become a bigger and more important part of culture in 2026, the responses were nearly identical.
About 31% of Americans believed that prediction markets will be a bigger and more important part of culture this year, compared to 34% for sports betting. Meanwhile, 38% of respondents viewed the cultural significance of prediction markets to be “about the same as now”, compared to 39% for sports betting.
The 3% gap between sports betting and prediction markets boils down to overall awareness and confidence. About 22% of respondents said that they did not know when asked about the cultural significance of prediction markets compared to only 19% for sports betting.
The Awareness Gap: A Generational Divide
The survey also revealed a stark contrast in how different age groups consume and recognize betting platforms.
While legacy giants like DraftKings and FanDuel maintain dominant awareness across all demographics, newer prediction-specific platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are finding a foothold primarily with younger audiences.
| Betting Platform | Gen Z & Millennials | Gen X & Older |
| DraftKings | 46% | 59% |
| FanDuel | 43% | 55% |
| ESPN Bet | 34% | 24% |
| BetMGM | 27% | 33% |
| Stake.com | 26% | 5% |
| Polymarket | 17% | 4% |
| Kalshi | 13% | 5% |
To understand how prediction markets could influence culture, the survey first measured basic awareness.
Respondents were asked: “Which, if any, of the following apps or services have you heard of?”
Among Gen Z and Millennials, awareness was highest for DraftKings (46%) and FanDuel (43%), but newer and nontraditional platforms are also registering meaningful recognition.
Polymarket led the way with 17% awareness and Kalshi stood at 13%. While still niche, these figures suggest that prediction markets are already on the radar of younger Americans and beginning to penetrate everyday culture.
Awareness among Gen X and older, just 4% reported awareness of Polymarket, and only 5% recognized Kalshi or pick’em apps.
Yet, slow adoption among older Americans hasn’t stopped prediction markets from smashing betting handle records in recent weeks.
The Future of Prediction Markets Look Bright
While prediction markets aren’t as popular as traditional sports betting apps yet, the future remains bright.
That’s because awareness often translates into behavior.
Among respondents who were aware of at least one betting platform, 41% said they are regular users of at least one app.
So, while prediction markets may still trail sports betting in overall awareness, younger Americans are already punching above their weight.
If familiarity keeps compounding, today’s niche platforms could be tomorrow’s cultural standard.
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