Vermont Bill Proposes Per-Bet Tax and Prediction Market Ban
Vermont lawmakers consider a per-bet sportsbook tax and a ban on prediction markets under H913 which mimics other states sportsbook tax
Vermont lawmakers are advancing legislation that would reshape the state’s young sports betting market.
House Bill H913 proposes two major changes. It would add a per-bet tax on sportsbook wagers and prohibit certain prediction markets from operating in the state.
For industry insiders, the proposal reflects a broader trend. States are re-evaluating sportsbook tax structures while also responding to the rise of federally regulated event contracts.
What H913 Would Change
Vermont launched mobile sports betting in early 2024 under a limited-operator model.
H913 would introduce:
- A per-bet tax applied to individual wagers
- Restrictions or bans on prediction market activity
- Adjustments to regulatory oversight
The per-bet tax concept differs from traditional gross gaming revenue taxation. Instead of taxing sportsbook revenue, the state would assess a fee tied directly to each wager placed.
Key provisions under discussion:
- Per-bet tax layered on top of existing tax structure
- Explicit prohibition of certain prediction market contracts
- Expanded enforcement authority
The bill is still working through the legislative process.
Why a Per-Bet Tax Matters
Most U.S. states tax sportsbooks based on adjusted gross revenue. This change mimics recent changes that the state of Illinois instituted.
A per-bet tax changes operator economics in several ways:
- Higher cost on small wagers
- Potential reduction in promotional offers
- Adjustments to betting limits
- Tighter margin management
From an operator standpoint, a per-bet structure can disproportionately affect lower-value wagers and high-frequency bettors.
Potential market impact:
- Reduced promotional spend
- Lower bet volume on micro wagers
- Increased pressure on operator margins
- Possible odds adjustments
Small states like Vermont operate on thinner overall volume, which makes structural tax shifts more sensitive.
Prediction Markets in the Crosshairs
H913 also seeks to block certain prediction market platforms from offering contracts in Vermont.
Prediction markets, overseen at the federal level by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, allow users to trade contracts on event outcomes.
Some lawmakers argue that sports-related event contracts resemble traditional wagering and should not bypass state gambling frameworks.
Platforms such as Kalshi have expanded sports offerings nationally, prompting pushback in several states.
The Vermont bill would clarify that such contracts are not permitted under state law.
Broader Industry Context
Vermont operates a controlled sports betting model with a small number of approved operators.
Companies like DraftKings and FanDuel participate in similar limited-license frameworks in other states.
Tax policy shifts can influence whether operators continue investing in:
- Marketing campaigns
- Local partnerships
- Promotional incentives
- Product expansion
For prediction markets, the Vermont proposal signals continued friction between federal commodities oversight and state gambling authority.
What Comes Next
H913 must clear committee hearings and legislative votes before becoming law.
If passed, Vermont would join a small but growing group of states experimenting with sportsbook tax models beyond traditional revenue percentages.
The bill also underscores a widening policy debate.
States want control over sports wagering economics.
At the same time, federally regulated event markets are testing the boundaries of gambling law.
Vermont’s decision could add another data point in that national conversation.
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