Next Federal Reserve Chair Odds: Who Will Replace Jerome Powell?

Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, speaks to the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs committee in regards to The Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report on Feb. 11, 2025.

Later this year, President Donald J. Trump will nominate a new candidate to become the next chair of the Federal Reserve. The current head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, will continue serving until his term expires in May 2026. Who will Trump choose to succeed Powell? The odds favor one specific candidate.

Next Federal Reserve Chair: Breaking Down the Candidates

Kalshi, one of the most popular prediction platform services, has listed contracts on who Trump might nominate as the next Federal Reserve Chair.

Last week, BlackRock chief bond investment manager Rick Rieder became the favorite to win the nomination. As of January 28, Rieder is listed at 37% on Kalshi, a company that has Donald Trump Jr. as a strategic advisor.

Rieder’s surge to the top of the list has been somewhat surprising. Rieder has never worked for the Federal Reserve.

Rieder currently manages around $2.4 trillion as BlackRock’s CIO of global fixed income. If nominated, Rieder brings with him knowledge about digitalized investment platforms and securities.

Rieder’s preferences align with Trump’s central bank ​priorities.

Behind Rieder, the next leading candidate is Kevin Warsh, who previously served on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011.

When Trump threatened to fire Powell in June 2025, the president mentioned Warsh’s name as a potential replacement.

Christopher Waller is the third candidate with the best chance of succeeding Powell. Since 2020, Waller has been on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Outside of the top three, the two candidates to keep an eye on are National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent.

Bessent was originally one of Trump’s top choices for the position. However, it looks like Bessent will only advise Trump during this process and won’t take the job.

Timeline for a Decision

President Trump has reportedly decided on the next chair of the Federal Reserve.

However, Trump has not made his decision public. The president previously said he plans to announce his pick “very soon.”

President Trump has publicly expressed his dislike for Powell. Trump is pushing Powell to lower borrowing costs regardless of how it affects inflation. So far, Powell has paused the Federal Reserve’s cuts on interest rates.

Meanwhile, Powell faces a criminal investigation launched by Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia. Powell believes these accusations are being used to pressure him into cutting interest rates.

Only one thing is certain: Powell will not be the Federal Reserve Chair after May 2026.

Andrew Foster

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