AGA: Prediction Markets Stall NFL Sports Betting Handle Growth
The American Gaming Association expects legal NFL betting handle to hold nearly flat at $29.5 billion this season, up only marginally from $29.4 billion a year ago, a slowdown the trade group attributes squarely to the rise of prediction markets.
The projection comes as the NFL season opens Wednesday, September 9, with the New England Patriots facing the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field in Seattle, a rematch of last season’s Super Bowl.
AGA president and CEO Bill Miller said the flattening handle marks a break from the growth pattern seen since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018.
“But this year is different. Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called ‘prediction markets,’ the growth of legal handle has stalled,” Miller said.
Platforms including Polymarket and Novig have expanded sports event contract offerings nationwide, and sports-related activity now makes up the majority of revenue for several of these operators, according to the AGA. The industry group also said prediction market platforms have siphoned more than $1.3 billion in potential state gaming tax revenue since 2025, at a time when legal, regulated sports betting supports an estimated 1.8 million jobs and generates roughly $18 billion a year in tax revenue.
Miller framed the marketing of sports event contracts as misleading. “These ‘prediction market’ platforms are dangerously misleading consumers by marketing sports wagers as an investment, rather than what it is: entertainment,” he said.
Novig’s Early Volume Numbers
Novig, a platform focused entirely on sports event contracts, launched August 4 and reported an average daily contract volume of 23.3 million over the seven days through August 23, according to figures cited in the AGA’s reporting. That topped two other prediction market operators, Rothera at 18.0 million and Underdog at 16.0 million, over the same period.
Caesars Digital Watches the Rivals Closely
Dominic Hammond, senior vice president of sports at Caesars Digital, said prediction markets represent a serious competitive threat but are not reshaping his company’s approach to the new season.
“We know they have a very formidable offering. They’re spending a lot of money. Fundamentally, we view their product as sports betting. If you can build a parlay, that’s sports betting, right? I don’t think you can call it anything else,” Hammond said.
Hammond said Caesars is leaning on features prediction markets cannot easily replicate, including its Flex Parlays product, which can still pay out even when one or more legs lose, along with its loyalty and rewards programs. “They’re not impacting our strategy, but we view them as a competitor,” he said.
The dispute between prediction market operators and the regulated sportsbook industry over whether sports event contracts qualify as federally regulated financial products or as state-licensed sports wagers continues to play out in courts and before regulators nationwide, with the matter widely expected to eventually reach the U.S. Supreme Court.
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