Prediction Markets See Consensus Grow Around Democratic Leadership, Diminish for Republicans
Gavin Newsom (Credit: Thomas Hawk via Flickr)
Prediction markets still see Republicans’ next presidential candidate choice as more of a done deal than Democrats’, but the difference is diminishing.
The events of the past month have seen a sharp drop in Vice-President J.D. Vance’s odds of being named Trump’s successor at the head of the Republican Party. Meanwhile, Democratic favorite Gavin Newsom has bounced back from a drop in his odds that came in late February.
Dark-horse Republican candidates like Tucker Carlson, Ron DeSantis, and Thomas Massie have all gained ground. Conversely, most possibilities outside the top three for Democrats have seen their odds flat or fading.
That said, despite the trend of the past month, the choice for Republicans still appears relatively more certain. Kalshi users still give J.D. Vance a 38% chance of vying to become the 48th President, while rating Newsom’s chances of being his opponent at 28%. Meanwhile, Democrats have a 42% chance of going with someone outside the current top five, while Republicans are only 26% likely of experiencing such a surprise.
Trading on the nominations markets has intensified steadily since the beginning of the year. The Democratic nomination has been the more popular of the two throughout. It was also the first to see a sharp rise, which came during February’s congressional hearings on the Epstein files. Increased trading on the Republican nomination came later, in the weeks after the invasion of Iran.
Republican Base Appears Increasingly Fragmented
Of the two trends, the slipping odds for J.D. Vance are easier to explain. As the Vice-President, he is inevitably associated with everything done by Trump during the current administration. That can work for or against him, depending on how Trump is polling with his base.
The Iran War has been incredibly divisive among Republicans. It’s popular with die-hard Trumpists, supporters of Israel, and apocalyptic Christians who see it as hastening the Rapture. However, one pillar of Trump’s “America First” campaign promises was reduced involvement in foreign wars. For the segment of Republican voters who put a lot of stock in that promise, the unprovoked attack on Iran came as a sudden betrayal.
Of the potential candidates who have been gaining ground, Carlson and Massie stand out as vocal critics of the decision to attack. DeSantis is more of a hardliner on Iran and has generally been supportive of Trump’s decisions, but has stopped short of advocating for a boots-on-the-ground invasion and may be better able than Vance to distance himself from the conflict if needed.
‘Safe’ Candidates More Popular When Party is Doing Well
On the other side of things, the reason for the resurgence of Newsom’s odds may be as simple as the perception that Democrats don’t need to do much to win the next election if the Republican party tears itself apart over Iran.
Newsom is generally seen as a safe, middleground candidate who will likely be palatable enough to both the centrists and left-wingers in the party. His odds of being the nominee could reasonably be expected to correlate with the party’s baseline chances of winning the election, while riskier candidates might see their chances grow if the picture looks bleak.
And Prediction market users clearly see the war in Iran as having helped Democrats more than Republicans. Since it began, the odds of a blue victory in 2028 have risen from 55% to 58%.
| Feb. 28 (Start of Iran War) | March 31 | April 10 | |
| Gavin Newsom as Democratic Nominee | 26.7% | 29.4% | 28.4% |
| Top 5 Democratic Candidates, Combined Odds of Nomination | 56.3% | 56.5% | 58.0% |
| J.D. Vance as Republican Nominee | 44.1% | 37.2% | 37.5% |
| Top 5 Republican Candidates, Combined Odds of Nomination | 74.8% | 72.1% | 71.9% |
| Democrat Victory in 2028 (Any Candidate) | 54.9% | 57.6% | 58.0% |
Odds according to Kalshi.
Image Credit: Thomas Hawk via Wikimedia Commons (license)
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