Prediction Market Bettors’ Attention Turns to Maine’s Scandal-Plagued Senate Race
Graham Platner (Credit: The Bulwark via Flickr)
While California’s primaries still top the political prediction market volume charts, attention is swinging toward the opposite corner of the country, where Maine Democrat hopeful Graham Platner is looking like an increasingly problematic candidate.
On Kalshi alone, over $1 million in trading took place yesterday on the race for Maine’s seat in the federal Senate this November. While some other hotly-contested primaries have dwarfed that number, it’s still quite a lot of interest for a state that’s among the ten least populated in the union.
The bulk of that money came in shortly after noon, coinciding with the publication of a report by the New York Times that included accusations by three former girlfriends who described Platner as “toxic” and unsettling.”
Although other politicians have survived worse scandals, the trouble for Platner is that it’s only the latest in a string of issues his opponents have unearthed — and the campaign hasn’t even started in earnest yet.
A Broad-Spectrum Slate of Scandals
Worst of all, the issues aren’t confined to ones that would only alienate part of Democrats’ potential base. There’s something for every potential blue voter to raise their eyebrows at, from the far left to anti-Trump Republican defectors.
Aside from allegedly getting physical with his romantic partners, he’s had to cover up a tattoo with Nazi associations, which he denies having been aware of at the time he got it. Meanwhile, CNN and Washington Post dug up old social media posts in which he described himself as a communist and slammed the police and rural white Americans.
Those other stories broke last year, with the election still a long way out, and didn’t move the needle much on Platner’s odds. Yet with just days to go before the primary vote, at least some political speculators see this as the last straw. Or perhaps, as the votes in California are being counted, they’re just looking for something new to bet on.
Either way, the market estimates that Democrats have gone from nearly 2-1 favorites to secure the seat to a coin flip with Republicans in under a week.
Interest May Wane in LA Mayorship if Pratt Doesn’t Advance
It’s possible that the market is overreacting to news that looks bad for a Democrat in an important race. The prediction market userbase overlaps heavily with the cryptocurrency world, and similarly skews right-wing and libertarian.
Prediction markets’ claim to fame in political forecasting comes largely from having beaten the pollsters in calling the 2024 election for Trump. There are signs that the desire to recreate that success is, ironically, skewing the odds now. A study by Bloomberg last year showed that consistently betting the No side of Trump-related markets produced a better return than investing in the stock market, due to that bias.
In the case of the LA mayoral race — the most popular political market of the year so far — three-quarters of the speculation has been on Spencer Pratt, a celebrity candidate with parallels to Trump. With two-thirds of the votes counted, Pratt still holds second place in the primary, but many mail-in votes remain and are projected to push third-place candidate Nithya Raman across the line instead.
Trump, of course, is already claiming, without evidence, that the election is rigged.
If Pratt were to advance, the mayoral markets look likely to exceed the 2024 presidential race in total volume by the time they’re done. If not, there will probably be less interest in a Bass-Raman showdown, though the final volume could still rival that of Zohran Mamdani’s campaign in New York, for which the main market clocked in at $121.6 million.
Do Democrats Have an Alternative to Platner?
If Platner proves to be unpalatable to Maine voters, the most likely second choice is current Governor Janet Mills. Her term limit is up this year and she had planned to run for the Senate seat.
However, although she remains on the ballot, she suspended her campaign at the end of April, citing a lack of funds. She is still on the ballot and has reminded voters of that fact. However, the consensus on Kalshi is that she is unlikely to prevail in the primary, no matter how unpopular Platner might be. His odds of receiving the nomination only wavered from 98% to a low point of 93% after the publication of the Times piece, and have since recovered to 96%.
However, a new market appeared on June 1, asking if Platner will drop out before the election. That’s sitting at 20%, suggesting a belief that he might do so after winning the nomination.
As long as he does so before July 13, Democrats could still place Mills or another candidate on the November ballot. Conceding after that point would be the worst-case scenario, leaving Republican incumbent Susan Collins to run almost unopposed, barring the emergence of a dark-horse independent candidate.
Image Credit: The Bulwark via Flickr (License)
Players trust our reporting due to our commitment to unbiased and professional evaluations of the iGaming sector. We track hundreds of platforms and industry updates daily to ensure our news feed and leaderboards reflect the most recent market shifts. With nearly two decades of experience within iGaming, our team provides a wealth of expert knowledge. This long-standing expertise enables us to deliver thorough, reliable news and guidance to our readers.
Latest News
