SCCG Research exclusive preview: Mastering the meta

SCCG Management provides an insider’s look into the unique aspects of esports betting.

While sharing the foundational principles with traditional sports betting, the world of esports betting introduces unique elements of interest to its sharps. Among these, seismic gameplay changes sometimes introduced by game updates, the diversity of esports titles, the volume of available in-game data and the understanding of ‘game meta’ collectively shape the betting experience.

The ‘meta,’ short for metagame, refers to the optimal strategies and character choices players use in a game at a given time. This ‘meta’ constantly evolves, impacted by game updates, player innovations and shifting competitive environments. The meta dictates the ‘best’ way to play a game to win, shaping the tactics and team compositions that professional players use in esports competitions.

For example, a particular character might become powerful due to a game update and professional teams adapt by including that character in their strategy – this change impacts the meta. As a bettor, understanding the current meta of an esport is crucial. It can provide insights into potential match outcomes, player performances and even how a game might unfold, which is especially relevant for in-play betting.

Game updates or ‘patches’ are a catalyst for changing the meta, adding a layer of complexity to esports betting. Game mechanics or character abilities can be tweaked, impacting team strategies, player performance and betting odds.

The diversity of esports titles adds another layer of complexity. The factors determining the outcome in a team-based strategy game like Dota 2 are worlds apart from those in a one-on-one fighting game like Street Fighter. This variability brings a fairly exciting level of unpredictability and demands different considerations when placing bets.

Furthermore, the availability of in-game data can significantly influence betting, particularly for ‘In-Play’ betting. In esports, live betting is amplified by the richness of measurable in-game events. However, the availability and quality of this data depend significantly on the game publisher and the accessibility of their game data and APIs.

For example, Riot Games, the publisher of League of Legends (LoL), provides a robust API with considerable game data. This data includes real-time information like player kills, team objectives secured, gold earned and more. The value of their API is so well and widely regarded that technical writers interested in esports publish and collaborate on the best ways to leverage the API in statistical performance analysis for esports writers and shoutcasters. Bookmakers also leverage these extensive data sets to create strong models supporting various live betting options, enhancing the dynamic betting experience.

On the other hand, many publishers still offer limited access to real-time game data. This restriction can limit the possibilities for live betting, as bookmakers need more real-time information to set dynamic odds. Thus, bettors might find fewer options for in-play betting in such games.

In some cases, third-party organizations step in to fill the data gap. For instance, in Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CS:GO), platforms like HLTV provide extensive match statistics, offering more data for bookmakers and bettors. The availability of such data enriches live betting opportunities, allowing for a wide variety of bets based on in-game events.

The Stratz website is another example, where their publishers are trying to “…build the future of esports analytics” parse and store data from every Dota 2 public match – over 3.2 billion matches and 83 million player profiles parsed.

The influence of player changes and the fluidity of the esports industry on ‘Outright Winner’ and ‘Accumulator’ bets add an extra layer of excitement. Teams may frequently change rosters and the impact of individual players can be more pronounced in some esports. This fluidity results in dramatic shifts in team performance and, therefore, betting odds.

While esports betting shares its fundamentals with traditional sports betting, it offers a unique and thrilling experience filled with fresh dynamics, challenges and opportunities. Like sharps in a conventional sports betting environment, smart esports bettors need a slightly different focus – a vigilant awareness of the dynamic changes within games, their player rosters and literal game-changing software patches that can alter mechanics and the entire meta – to navigate and conquer this evolving digital world.

Forward-looking, the full report will be released at sccgmanagement.com/research this Thursday at 7:00PM Pacific Time.

Elena Rodriguez

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