After several weeks of wild point spread swings caused by stars being placed in Covid protocols, Week 17 of the National Football League has seen most lines stay near their opening number – until Friday, when the Minnesota Vikings received bad news.
The opening line for the Sunday Night game featuring the Vikings at the Green Bay Packers was Packers -6.5. When word broke that Kirk Cousins, Minnesota’s quarterback, tested positive for Covid, the spread jumped to Green Bay -13.
Cousins is unvaccinated and has been loud about his status.
The Vikings have to win to stay alive in the hunt for a playoff spot, and must do so with backup QB Sean Mannion. Mannion has appeared in just 13 games in five seasons in the NFL, throwing a total of 74 passes.
What had been a marquee matchup between two bitter division rivals with a lot on the line – Green Bay leads both Tampa Bay and the Los Angeles Rams by one game in the race to get the top seed in the NFC and a bye for the first weekend of the playoffs – has been relegated to one of several games with double-digit pointspreads. Minnesota now is a +625 moneyline underdog, while the Packers are -900 (sorry NBC).
Four teams, the New England Patriots (-16.5), San Francisco 49ers (-12.5), Buffalo Bills (-14.5) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13), are significant favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets, respectively.
Of those four games, the only notable line movement this week was in the 49ers-Texans contest. San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garappolo’s status has been up in the air as he sprained his thumb in the 49ers’ Week 16 game at Tennessee. The latest word is Garappolo intends to play, but the spread has dropped from the opening SF -15 to the current -12.5.
According to TheLines.com, which tracks odds in the US regulated sports betting market, bookmakers have had to factor in the potential havoc Covid could have on some teams’ rosters, especially when key players are involved.
In Week 17, Covid and cold weather in some spots are scoring expectations relatively low, TheLines noted, as 13 games have a projected point total of 46 or less.
The matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys features an over/under of 50 points, which is just the second time in three weeks a game has reached that threshold. By contrast, the first week of the NFL season featured five games with point totals of 50 points or more.
“Bettors need to be vigilant in the last few weeks of the season,” Brett Collson, lead analyst for TheLines.com, said in a statement. “Whether it is struggling teams playing out the string, Covid continuing to affect rosters, or inclement weather that can hold down scoring, oddsmakers are factoring in a lot of moving parts.”
