Circa faces $7.5m overlay risk as NFL contest sign-ups slow
Prize pools remain on track to break records, but operator may need to cover shortfall ahead of September 6 deadline.
Key Points
- Circa Survivor has 10,223 entries, short of the 15,000 needed for $15m guarantee
- Circa Million VII projected to finish just below its 6,000-entry requirement
- High-stakes Grandissimo contest already surpasses $1.5m guarantee with 22 entries
Las Vegas-based Circa Sports could be required to contribute $7.5m in overlays to meet guaranteed prize pools for its flagship NFL contests, as entry numbers fall short less than two weeks before the September 6 deadline.
The Circa Survivor contest, which requires players to pick one straight-up NFL winner each week without spreads, had 10,223 entries as of August 25.
The contest needs 15,000 to fulfil its $15m guarantee. Although entries were tracking 40% ahead of last year’s pace, VP of Operations Mike Palm said projections now indicate a total closer to $19.6m, just shy of earlier $20m estimates.
The Circa Million VII, where participants submit five weekly NFL picks against the spread, has 3,235 entries to date. It requires 6,000 to meet its $6m guarantee, with Palm suggesting final totals could reach around 5,970.
Last year, Circa covered a $183,000 overlay in that contest, part of approximately $4m paid in overlays across the past four years.
Good to know: Circa set a record $14.2m Survivor prize pool in 2024, the largest in US contest history
The company’s new ultra-high-stakes Grandissimo contest, priced at $100,000 per entry, has already surpassed its $1.5m guarantee with 22 entries confirmed.
Palm expects the final number could reach 35 to 40 by deadline, with both individual and group entries reported.
The operator has recently expanded its Nevada footprint, launching a sportsbook at Silverton Casino Lodge in early 2024, alongside operations at Circa Resort & Casino, The D Las Vegas and other venues.
It has also extended into Illinois through a partnership with Full House Resorts, offering both mobile betting and a retail sportsbook in Waukegan.
Whether Circa will be required to make up the full $7.5m shortfall will depend on a final surge in entries over the coming fortnight, with sign-ups historically accelerating in the days leading up to the NFL season opener.
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