Ballon d’Or Insider Trading Scandal Shows How Online Community Will Police Polymarket
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A group of 12 Polymarket accounts is under scrutiny after investigations revealed they correctly predicted the top five finishers in the Ballon d’Or voting this year.
The trades raised suspicions even before the ceremony, showing that the open nature of Polymarket’s platform will lead to insider trading being quickly flagged, particularly as prediction markets grow increasingly popular.
The first suspicions were raised on October 20, six days before the ceremony. French outlet Upside 24 noted that 12 Polymarket accounts wagered $264,000 on the same top five in the Ballon d’Or, the prize awarded to the world’s best soccer player.
“If the final ranking is Kane, Mbappé, Yamal, Rodri, Messi, the probability that this $264,000 is due to chance will be very difficult to argue,” wrote Upside24.
The finishing order was, of course: Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri, and Lionel Messi.
Organizers File Criminal Complaint
Groupe Amaury, which organises the competition through France Football, announced on October 31 that it would file a complaint.
“The integrity of the Ballon d’Or is an absolute priority for France Football,” a spokesperson said. “We would like to reaffirm that the winner is chosen through an independent vote, and that we are taking seriously these accusations relating to the leaking of results and the possible existence of fraudulent bets. Investigations are ongoing to establish the facts and any potential responsibility.”
“We are in the process of filing a complaint with the competent police authorities. Given that the investigations are ongoing, we cannot share further details at this stage.”
The French police are now investigating the matter, and the evidence gathered online has made their case far easier.
It is the second high-profile Polymarket trading scandal in France, in which the platform was officially blocked. Back in April, a user allegedly manipulated heat sensors using a hair dryer to profit on wagers on the temperature in Paris.
Players Did Not Know Results, But Bettors Allegedly Did
The Ballon d’Or is awarded to the player who collects the most votes from an international jury of specialized sports journalists selected by France Football.
This year, the voting closed on September 28, giving the France Football editorial team time to collate the final scores ahead of the ceremony on October 26.
“How do we keep the winner’s identity hidden? I think a well-kept secret is one that is shared with as few people as possible,” said the former France Football editor Pascal Ferré.
In the past, players were informed of the results one or two weeks before the ceremony. That practice ended in 2024. Now, France Football aims to let as few people as possible know the results, which could count against anyone who has used the knowledge to place wagers.
Upside24 reported that the majority of the accounts flagged were opened between October 1 and 20. Seven of the 12 accounts did not bet on any other markets.
In total, the 12 accounts deposited approximately $309,000 on Polymarket and withdrew about $500,000 after the announcement. The first withdrawal occurred just 19 minutes after the rankings were officially announced, and $374,000 had already left the platform three hours later.
Trading Activity Open For All To See
Upside24 was able to investigate because Polymarket openly displays all user activity. It noted suspicious trades from the account kraben006, now renamed to edgarblade.
The account bought up positions on Kane to win the award at a price of 37c, indicating a 37% chance of success. As Kane’s odds rose, the trader cashed out at 67c.
Rather than merely pocketing the profits, the user then reinvested in exact-place bets, including all top five finishers.
In total, the account made just over $10,000 from the trades. A straight wager on Kane to win may not have aroused suspicion, but the pattern of trading “looks more like informed position management than a classic speculative bet”, wrote Upside24.
In a subsequent article, Upside24 revealed that the owner of the account should be easily tracked by authorities as it used a French financial app, Deblock. The company should have the user’s information.
Sites Track Possible Insiders
The open availability of trading information on Polymarket’s platform and feeds has spawned new websites dedicated to tracking accounts that may be insiders.
The site Future News has a section devoted to possible insider trading. When it comes to smaller markets with lower liquidity, suspicious activity is even easier to spot.
A Reddit user noted that Future News had tagged several accounts with insider icons who were holding positions in the market: “Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?”
This market proved profitable. When it opened, Yamal was a strong favorite to finish ahead of Mbappé. The chances of Mbappé finishing ahead of the Spaniard rose from as low as 9.5% to a high of 78%.
A Reddit user noted that four of the accounts holding the biggest positions on Mbappé had only opened their accounts in October and did not trade in any other markets.
The user with the highest position, VidenteRibeira, made six transactions between October 16-18, which earned a profit of over $24,000.
Insider May Have Been Wagering For Last 3 Years
One of the accounts flagged in the investigations was the user Kallipso. It emerges that the account accurately predicted the Ballon d’Or winner over the past three years.
In 2024, the user wagered on the eventual winner, Rodri, when he was given just a 7% chance. Last year, the account successfully predicted Ousmane Dembele would win the award.
This year, the timing of wagers on Kane raises suspicions. The account purchased shares at 11:59 p.m. Paris time on September 28, exactly one minute before official jury voting closed.
Notably, 2024 is also the year that France Football became more secretive about who is informed of the results beforehand, excluding players.
While that may have helped users profit, it may also be their undoing. The ever-increasing popularity of Polymarket and other prediction markets both increases the risk of similar insider trading scandals, while also making it easier for online vigilantes to catch and highlight suspicious activity.
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