Roanoke’s Casino Gamble Faces Steep Political and Economic Odds
Roanoke’s pursuit of a casino is already breaking from precedent, but not in ways that make the path forward any easier.
Every Virginia city that has been authorized to host a casino has followed a similar path The local legislators backed the proposal, the state commissioned formal studies, and voters were eventually asked to sign off. Roanoke, at least so far, has none of that institutional alignment.
A Casino Push Without Political Cover
All three state legislators who represent the city oppose the idea. So do several lawmakers in neighboring districts who might otherwise be expected to support it. Some aren’t just skeptical, instead they’re openly hostile. State Sen. Chris Head has said he will oppose a Roanoke casino “viscerally and vehemently,” vowing to use “every fiber” of his being to stop it.
That kind of resistance is unprecedented in Virginia’s casino rollout. In Danville, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Bristol, Richmond and later Petersburg, legislative backing came first. Roanoke is attempting to reverse the order, convincing the General Assembly despite hometown opposition and without the benefit of a formal market study.
What the Studies Say…And What’s Missing
That absence matters. Every casino approved by the state so far has been preceded by at least one JLARC study, and in most cases, additional local analyses. Danville alone had three separate studies conducted before voters ever cast a ballot. Roanoke has none.
Existing studies also create another complication: they already treat Roanoke as part of other casinos’ customer bases.
Key findings from previous state and local studies include:
- JLARC’s 2019 report defined a casino’s “competitive market” as a two-hour drive. Roanoke sits well within that range for Caesars Virginia in Danville.
- A later study for Petersburg included Roanoke in its projected market area, even at a three-hour driving distance.
- That Petersburg study projected revenue declines at Danville, Norfolk and Portsmouth if a new casino opened — but no material impact on Bristol, which is more than five hours away.
Taken together, those studies suggest a Roanoke casino would likely compete, to some degree, with facilities in Danville, Petersburg and possibly Bristol. How much competition is the question, but Roanoke has yet to be studied.
What we do know is that the projections haven’t been entirely theoretical. While operators haven’t released detailed visitor data, industry reporting has shown an increase in Roanoke-area visitors at the Bristol casino. Caesars has also acknowledged that Danville draws significant day-trip traffic, a category Roanoke clearly falls into.
Against that backdrop, Mayor Joe Cobb has framed the casino idea as an economic catalyst. The proposal envisions a casino at the Berglund Center paired with a hotel, restaurants, event space and parking. City officials point to hundreds of potential jobs, tourism growth and a local share of gaming revenue (6% of the first $100 million annually) that could be reinvested in neighborhoods, schools and public safety.
Public reaction, however, has been mixed. Some residents see opportunity. Others worry about crime, addiction, and money being siphoned away from local businesses. Even members of the Berglund Center’s own advisory committee say they were blind sided by the announcement.
The Risk Roanoke Is Willing to Take
Ultimately, Roanoke is making two big bets.
First, that the General Assembly will authorize a casino over the objections of the city’s own legislators, something it has never done before. Second, that a casino can succeed in the Star City without the validation of a formal market study.
It’s possible Roanoke could support a casino without seriously undermining the ones the state has already approved. It’s also possible it couldn’t.
Right now, that question remains unanswered, and not because it’s been studied and settled. But because no one has bothered to ask it yet.
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